190,000 visitors. A simple figure – surprisingly the same as it was last year – the market has developed, the number of visitors has not. Is 190,000 the maximum capacity Essen can provide? It would be an explanation. It is by far not the same market than it was weeks ago, months ago and -for sure- not as it was a year ago. The current economic situation includes completely new groups of buyers and the buying frenzy is not reduced on Ferrari. From what we heard from experts of other brands it is the same with Porsche, Mercedes and so on.
Experts rate the situation as a bubble, what it sure is. They believe we are in the tail of it and hope, it may be a long one. What bubble ever showed a tail? The current economic situation seems to be the key. Low interest rates, politically influenced, high stock market levels, investors in search of alternative investments – that seems to be the key. How long will it last? As long as the conditions of the financial markets remain the same, we believe.
What worries us is the strong rise in cars on offer - what is not unusual at all, if prices rise, the number of cars on offer will do as well. Essen saw about 70 Ferraris on offer per year from 2011 to 2014, 2015 surprised with more than 130 cars – nearly or exactly doubled. Dinos (16 in total) around 400 k€ are no surprise, 330 GT 2+2, being available around 80 k€ in 2009, are climbing to more than 300 k€ - what a surprise. 308 GTB Vetroresina’s about 200 k€ are no surprise, “standard” later models at 150 k€ are a surprise. And that is a line we can follow: 328 at 100 k€ plus, Testarossa’s at 150 k€ and even bad examples of F40’s at asking prices of close to a million € are said to have been sold, GT/4 Dinos, available at 25 k€ two years ago are getting close to asking prices of 100 k€ and – what we have learned from the market - sellers are stretching every argument to justify prices – the F355 is the first Montezemolo era car, it’s the final Ferrari with folding headlights and the last V8 being produced in low numbers - its asking prices will rise, believe me, 45 k€ that we have seen only month ago would be a bargain today for a good example, 100 k€ are the next target. And even Mondial’s are reaching new heights and have been sold, on the first day of the fair at levels of 50 k€.
May the tail of the bubble be long…